What Should Google Do?

Video Summary

Google Was First in Social Media

Google was first in social media?  Think about it this way.  There are essentially two categories of web sites:

• Those who generate content
• Those who let users generate content

Any web site which relies on users generating content has to be social.  Google didn’t decide what would be on the web.  It simply gave you a way to find it.  The “what” was out there was decided by your friends (even the millions of friends you didn’t know).

Google took social data and came up with page rank.  Page rank revolutionized search by incorporating an algorithm to decide which sites best met the criteria of search terms.  It did that by considering some social elements:

• Number of sites which link
• Quality of sites which link
• Feedback from Google itself.

What does the last one mean?  If you search for “cat” on Google and click on the top link and then return to the results page or search for “cat” again, Google takes that to mean you didn’t find what you’re looking for.  The link where you stop looking for “cat” has a higher chance of being what you were looking for.

User feedback, and the social feedback in terms of quality and frequency of links built the first social features into Google.  And it hasn’t improved much since then.

Google’s Stratgey

Google has decided on the “umbrella” strategy.  They develop free web-based software applications to build the brand and bring more users into what Seth Godin would call their “tribe.”  The more users rely on google for their web-mail, calendar, documents, news, financial information, etc., the more likely they’ll be to use the search bar at the top of the page.  And the more likely you’ll see the ads Google serves at the side.

Another key point in their strategy is data.  The more data Google gather on users, the more precisely they can fine-tune page rank and ad words.

Google vs. Facebook

So why has Google made billions right from the start when it has taken Facebook many years to show a profit at all?  The answer comes from expectations.

A user of Google expects to input a term and be presented with text-links related to that term.  Google’s ads are text-links related to that term.

A user of Facebook expects to check friends status messages, see their pictures, and maybe waste hours in Farmville.  Facebook’s ads are text-links and pictures related to a term in their profile.

Facebook users aren’t looking for text-links.  That’s why they don’t click.

So Why Should Google Care About Social?

Google clearly does care about social media.  They’ve tried many things to get their hands on your social data:

• Orkut (wtf is that?)
• Wave
• Buzz

They obviously have been very limitedly successful.  Orkut (Google’s brand of Facebook or MySpace) is very popular in Brazil and India.  The theory, I can only assume, is that combining social influence and search can be very powerful in getting you to click.

Here’s what I mean.  The ads on Facebook aren’t very persuasive because you aren’t there to find cool products or links.  Now imagine if the same ad appear’d next to search results.  Since now you’re looking for cool products or links, would you be more likely to click on the one that 9 of your friends are a fan of?  Google suspects so.  That’s why they’re so desperate to get into social media.

But if Google can’t get their hands on Facebook’s data, what should it do?

How is Amazon More Social Than Facebook?

Search an Amazon term.  At the bottom you’ll see in raw data that: 84% of users bought the item on the screen, 10% bought a similar one by another manufacturer, and 6% bought something else.  84% of people shopping for this term bought this.  Are 84% of people wrong?

Google knows these data too.  They just don’t show you.

Look again at Amazon.  Customers gave this product 4 out of 5 stars.  You won’t find information like that on Google, even though it does come up with a similar sort of number when calculating page rank.

They just don’t show you.

What Should Google Do?

Google needs to show its social metrics.  An ad on the right suddenly has credibility if below it there reads, “Linked to from TechCrunch” which it also happens to know is a site you’ve listed as a favorite.  What if you actually knew that there are 10,000 references to Sheldon Brown’s bicycle advice page?  Would you be more likely to click?

Google also needs to test social ads in the markets where Orkut use is high.  If click-through is higher for social ads placed next to search results, they have a strong incentive to either partner with Facebook, or try to compete (because eventually Facebook will try to become a search engine).

The strength of Facebook is in the number of its users.  But Google’s got a ton too.  If they can find a way to make Google fun and social to use…

I strongly believe that’s why Google is after the game market.  Facebook users play social games online.  Google wants their Google games platform to lift them from the utilitarian role they currently serve in most places in the world, to the fun, social environment we all love at Facebook.

Flikr Credit: Yodel Anecdotal